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你真的有自己以为的那么棒吗？
事实上我们常常高估自己的能力
学术界对这种现象有一个说法
邓宁-克鲁格效应
– 本期视频 –
你真的有自己以为的那么棒吗？Are you as good atthings bas you think you are？你的理财能力怎么样？你解读别人的情感的能力如何？你比你认识的人身体更健康吗？你的语法能力高于平均水平吗？
How good are you atmanaging money？What about reading people’s emotions？How healthy are youcompared to other people you know？Are you better thanaverage at grammar清楚地认识自己到能力，并客观地拿自己与他人进行比较不仅能增加一个人的自信心还能帮助我们肯定自己的决定和直觉并让我们能在需要帮助时能向他人寻求建议。
Knowing how competent we areand how are skill stack up against other people’sis more than a self-esteemboost.It helps us figure out when we can forge ahead on our own decisions and instinctsand when we need, instead to seek out advice.然而心理学研究发现，其实我们并不擅长正确估计自己的能力。事实上我们常常高估自己的能力。
But psychological research suggests that we’re not very good at evaluating ourselves accurately.In fact, we frequently over estimate our own abilities.
学术界对这种现象有一个说法邓宁-克鲁格效应。
Researchers have aname for this phenomena,the Dunning-Kruger effect.这一效应解释了为什么在超过100个研究中人们普遍频繁表现出了错觉般的优越感。
This effect explains why morethan 100 studies have shown that people displayillusory superiority.我们高估了自己的水平甚至到了一个违背了数学法则的程度。
We judge ourselves as better than othersto a degree that violates the laws of math.两个软件公司里的工程师被要求去评估自己的表现，其中分别有32%和42%的人认为自己有着前5%的顶级表现。另一个研究则显示，88%的美国司机认为自己的驾驶技术高于平均水平。
When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance,32% of the engineersat one company and 42% at the other put themselves in thetop 5%.In another study, 88%of American driversdescribed themselves as having above average driving skills.类似的研究发现并不在少数。通常人们会认为自己比大多数人要棒，无论在健康、领导能力、伦理道德等各种方面。
These aren’t isolated findings. On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most in disciplines ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and beyond.
格外有趣的是正是那群最没有能力的人最常会最大程度地高估自己的能力，在测量中表现出糟糕的逻辑推理能力、语法水平、经济知识、数学能力、情商、操作医学实验以及棋艺逊色的人都倾向于把自己当成专家。
What’s particularlyinteresting is that those with the least ability are often the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent. People measurably poorat logical reasoning, grammar, financial knowledge,math,emotionalintelligence,running medical lab tests,and chess all tend to rate theirexpertise almost as favorably as actual experts do.
那么哪种人最容易出现这种幻觉呢？
So who’s mostvulnerable to this delusion很不幸所有人。因为我们都有自己不胜任但又意识不到的地方,这是为什么呢？
Sadly, all of us. Because we all have pockets of in competence we don’t recognize. But why心理学家达宁和克鲁格于1999年首次对这一效应进行描述，他们认为缺乏特定领域知识和技能的人存在两个问题，仿佛受到了双重的诅咒。
When psychologists Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999, they argued thatpeople lacking knowledge and skill in particular areas suffer a double curse.
第一他们会犯错误并做出糟糕的决定，第二他们的知识欠缺也会阻碍他们发现错误
First, they make mistakes and reach poor decisions.But second, those sameknowledge gaps also prevent them from catching their errors.换句话说表现不佳的人缺乏所需的专业知识，因此他们也无法认识到自己做得多么糟糕。
In other words, poor performers lack the very expertise needed to recognize how badlythey’re doing.比如研究人员在研究大学生辩论赛的参赛者时发现，在前几轮中的表现排在倒数25%的那一拨人在随后的5轮比赛中还将再遭遇4次左右失败。但这些人却认为自己的胜率接近60%。由于对辩论赛的规则缺乏扎实的把握，这些学生根本就没有意识到是在什么时候以及自己的论点崩塌得有多么频繁。
For example, when the researchers studied participants in a college debate tournament,the bottom 25% of teams in preliminary roundslost nearly four out of every five matches.But they thought they were winning almost 60%.Without a strong grasp of the rules of debate,the students simply couldn’t recognize when or how often their arguments broke down.
达克-克鲁格效应并非一个自我盖过弱点的问题，人们通常能够在觉察时就承认自己的弱点。
The Dunning-Kruger effect isn’t a question of ego blinding us to our weaknesses. People usually do admit their deficits once they can spot them.一个研究显示在逻辑测验中表现不佳的学生在参加了一个短期的逻辑课程后相当坦诚地承认了自己原有的不足。
In one study, student swho had initially done badly on a logic quizand then took a minicourse on logicwere quite willing to label theiroriginal performances as awful.这有可能正是为什么那些水平一般的人常常信心不足的原因，这些人对自己的不足有着足够的认识。与此同时，专家们也更倾向于清楚地认识到自己的博学。
That may be why people with a moderate amount of experience or expertise often have lessconfidence in their abilities. They know enough toknow that there’s a lot they don’t know. Meanwhile, expertstend to be aware of just how knowledgeable they are.但专家们通常会犯另一种错误：他们以为其他人知道的也很多。
But they often make a different mistake: they assume that everyone else is knowledgeable, too.这样一来无论是笨拙还是技艺精湛，人们经常不能准确认知自我。当他们不擅长某事的时候，他们看不到自己的缺点。当他们异常能干的时候，他们不知道自己的能力有多不寻常。
The result is that people whether they’reinept or highly skilled, are often caught in a bubble of inaccurate self-perception.When they’re unskilledthey can’t see their own faults. When they’re exceptionally competent, they don’t perceive how unusual their abilities are.
所以如果达克-克鲁格效如此难以被人们觉察，那么人们要怎么做才能正确评估自己呢？
So if the Dunning-Kruger effectis invisible to those experiencing it, what can you do tofind out how good you actually are at various things首先，从他人那获取反馈，即使忠言逆耳也要仔细思考这些反馈。其次，也是更重要的一点就是要不断学习。拥有越多的知识，我们就能更大可能地缩小自我评估的盲区
First, ask for feedback from other people, and consider it,evenif it’s hard to hear. Second, and more important, keep learning.The more knowledgeable we become, the less likely we are to have invisible holes in our competence.也许总结起来就是一句老话：要是与一个愚人起了争论，首先要确保的是自己没有在做同样的蠢事。
Perhaps it all boils down to that old proverb: When arguing with a fool, first make sure the other person isn’t doing the same thing.
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